Global Overview NOVEMBER 2016

November saw violence escalate again in Syria, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Cameroon. Attacks by pro-regime forces on rebel strongholds in Syria resumed, causing significant civilian casualties. In Myanmar’s Rakhine state intensifying violence displaced tens of thousands of Rohingya Muslims, while a major attack by armed groups near the Chinese border threatened to undermine the country’s fragile ethnic peace process. In DRC, violence rose in the east and the regime continued to repress dissent, underscoring the risk that renewed protests, likely in December when President Kabila’s second term officially ends, could turn violent. In Cameroon, Boko Haram stepped up its attacks in the Far North and minority English-speakers clashed with security forces in the North West region. The victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election on 8 November created uncertainty about possible shifts in future U.S. foreign policy priorities and positions, including on a number of conflicts and prominent geostrategic arenas – among them the future of the historic multilateral nuclear accord with Iran.

Between June and September 2016, over 17,000 people in 16 countries were asked to share their views on a range of issues relating to war – in the People on War survey. The results are both reassuring and alarming.

We asked people living in countries affected by armed conflict if they believe the rules of war matter. They do. Over two thirds of people living in these countries as well as those from countries that are permanent members of the UN Security Council and Switzerland think it makes sense to impose limits on how they are fought. Almost half of those surveyed in conflict-affected countries believe the Geneva Conventions prevent wars from getting worse. But we also see that people are becoming resigned to the death of civilians as an inevitable part of war.

There is a disconnect between public opinion and the policies and actions of States and armed groups. Violations of the laws of war – including the targeting of civilians, humanitarian workers and hospitals – continue. Yet the survey results clearly show that the majority of people understand that these practices are wrong and that civilians and health-care workers and facilities must be protected.

For more

Learn about the rules of war
See information on the survey methodology
Read My perspective: Photojournalist Giles Duley on People on War

Dans le cadre de l'enquête « Les voix de la guerre », plus de 17 000 personnes de 16 pays ont été interrogées entre juin et septembre 2016 sur une série de thèmes liés à la guerre. Si certains résultats se sont révélés encourageants, d'autres sont plus alarmants.

Nous avons demandé aux personnes vivant dans des pays en proie à un conflit si elles pensaient que les lois de la guerre étaient importantes. C'est le cas. Plus de deux tiers des personnes vivant dans ces pays, ainsi que celles vivant en Suisse et dans les cinq pays membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU, estiment qu'il est important d'imposer des limites à la manière de conduire les hostilités. Près de la moitié des sondés vivant dans des pays touchés par un conflit armé pensent que les Conventions de Genève permettent de limiter les horreurs de la guerre. L'étude révèle aussi un certain fatalisme, de plus en plus de gens considérant les pertes civiles comme une conséquence inévitable de la guerre.

On constate un décalage entre le positionnement de l'opinion publique et la pratique des États et des groupes armés. Ainsi, les violations des lois de la guerre – telles que les attaques contre les civils, les travailleurs humanitaires et les hôpitaux – persistent, alors que les résultats de l'enquête montrent clairement que la majorité de la population sait que ces pratiques sont inacceptables et que les civils comme les personnels de santé et les structures médicales doivent être protégés.

Pour en savoir plus :

• Plus d'informations sur l'enquête "Les voix de la guerre"

• Sept témoignages sur les voix de la guerre

• Mon expérience de la guerre, par Giles Duley, photojournaliste

• Soutien fort aux Conventions de Genève mais tolérance accrue à l'égard de la torture, communiqué de presse

• Plus sur les lois de la guerre

The map below shows asylum applications by under age 18 year olds and gender. Darker colours mean more people have applied in a certain country. Use the slider to select a year or the drop down menus below to display data for different age groups or different home countries.

Abstract

​The ECDC Communicable Disease Threats Report (CDTR) is a weekly bulletin for epidemiologists and health professionals about active public health threats. This issue covers the period 25-31 December 2016 and includes updates on polio, influenza A(H7N9) in China and Zika virus.

Editorial Note

Annual Threat Assessment 2017

2016 saw the so-called Islamic State (IS) in retreat following sustained bombardment and military attacks and airstrikes by the US-led coalition as well as Russian and Syrian forces. It has conceded large swathes of territory, towns and cities, and lost some of its top commanders and strategists and more than 25,000 fighters. The group‘s revenue has declined and so has the flow of new fighters. It has to contend with desertions, in-fighting and scarce resources. Its fall-back wilayats (provinces) in Libya have been lost and many in the liberated areas of Iraq and Syria are jubilant at its ouster after holding sway for more than 20 months. Its declaration of the caliphate is rejected by the Muslim world, which has denounced its acts of violence and misreading of religious texts. Since its formation, IS remains the object of condemnation and denunciation by the whole world.

Even so, the terrorist threat posed by IS and its decentralised networks in 2016 shows no sign of abatement. Throughout the year, IS‘ active worldwide networks demonstrated the ability to plan, direct, train, recruit and radicalise from abroad, operating with impunity and surpassing the threat from Al Qaeda‘s old guard. The year saw a number of IS-directed or IS-inspired attacks by terror cells or "lone wolves" in major cities like Brussels, Nice, Orlando, Istanbul, Dhaka, Jakarta and Berlin resulting in thousands of casualties. Its propaganda machinery and online presence remain formidable, exploiting technology for communications, recruitment, finance, training and terrorist operations. IS has caused the displacement of millions and triggered a humanitarian crisis among refugees and in the battle zones. The group‘s extremism and violence have contributed to inter-religious tensions and discord, and strengthened anti-Islamist movements in the West.

The stage is therefore set for 2017 to be a portentous and decisive year for IS and countries afflicted by the threat of terrorism. As IS loses control of Mosul and Raqqa in coming months, it will change strategy, focus and priorities. How it will change and what the impact will be are issues addressed by Rohan Gunaratna in his article on Global Threat Forecast, as well as in accompanying articles on the terrorism situation in selected countries and regions.* As IS continues to lose ground in Iraq and Syria, it will transform itself from a caliphate-building entity to a terrorist organisation. It will seek refuge in its many wilayats and enclaves, and consolidate, expand and use them as launching pads to mount terrorist attacks. The group will continue with its strategy of expanding the ‗battlefield‘ to the West and elsewhere, and hit ‗soft‘ and easy targets. Overall, the terrorist threat will endure in the New Year and will continue to require effective counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism and counter-violent extremism measures.

Immigration Detention And Community Statistics Summary

At 30 November 2016, there were 1414 people in immigration detention facilities, including 1158 in immigration detention on the mainland and 256 in immigration detention on Christmas Island.

A further 560 people were living in the community after being approved for a residence determination and 26,186 were living in the community after grant of a Bridging Visa E.

With the humanitarian situation drastically deteriorating in a number of countries and regions, the EU is releasing urgent assistance. A total of €28.7 million have been allocated to respond to the most pressing humanitarian needs in Somalia, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Egypt and Libya.

"Humanitarian needs worldwide reached record levels last year. We are mobilising the last reserves of the Commission's 2016 budget to help cover the most urgent needs, in particular in countries where the humanitarian response is underfunded. We will continue to support the most vulnerable people worldwide with EU aid in 2017," said Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management Christos Stylianides.

The biggest share of the package, €10 million, will go to humanitarian assistance in Somalia, for which the United Nations launched an urgent appeal last month. The country is currently facing a severe and worsening drought that has left additional hundreds of thousands of people short of food and water, while five million Somalis – more than 40 per cent of the population – already lack access to sufficient food.

€8 million of the package will address the needs of the increasing numbers of displaced people and recent returnees in Afghanistan, who have been particularly hard hit by the sub-zero winter – as well as vulnerable Afghan refugees in Iran.

Humanitarian assistance of €3.9 million will be channelled to populations affected by conflict in Myanmar. At least 30 000 people have been newly displaced by recent violence, and some 22 000 have fled across the border into Bangladesh. An estimated 14 000 people have crossed into China and a further 3 500 are displaced within the Northern Shan State. All need urgent humanitarian assistance.

Egypt, where the influx of refugees, asylum seekers and migrants from Syria, Iraq and sub-Saharan Africa continues, will receive €3.8 million humanitarian aid channelled through EU humanitarian partner organisations. As of 31 October 2016, UNHCR reported over 190 000 registered asylum seekers and refugees in Egypt.

In Libya, where the humanitarian situation remains very fragile, the Commission will allocate €3 million of the package for relief assistance to vulnerable people. Governance challenges, the economic crisis, insecurity and violence have caused displacement, unsafe living conditions and a lack of access to essential goods and services. Some 1.3 million people – 19 per cent of the population - require humanitarian assistance.

EU humanitarian aid is delivered in line with the humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality and independence. It covers intervention areas such as food and nutrition, water and sanitation, shelter, health care and education in emergencies, and is channelled through partner organisations - UN agencies, international organisations and NGOs.

The European Commission has been providing humanitarian aid since 1992 in over 110 countries. While its annual budget for such operations is only around €1 billion, the Commission's assistance reaches over 120 million people every year.

Abstract

​The ECDC Communicable Disease Threats Report (CDTR) is a weekly bulletin for epidemiologists and health professionals on active public health threats. This issue covers the period 8-14 January 2016 and includes updates on Legionnaires' disease, Zika virus and seasonal influenza.

The Philippines

AFFECTED AREAS

Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol and Eastern Visayas regions

CAUSE OF DISPLACEMENT

Disaster (Storm)

FIGURES

More than 2.5 million new displacements between 24 December and 11 January

CONTEXT
Approximately 488,000 people were pre-emptively evacuated before typhoon Nock-Ten (local name, Nina) made landfall on 25 December as a category three storm. Several areas declared a state of calamity (NDRRMC, 2 January 2017). Nok-Ten displaced 583,000 families or 2.5 million people. As of 13 January, 116 families or nearly 800 people were still staying in 16 evacuation centres, while everyone who took refuge with friends or family had returned home (DROMIC, 13 January 2017).

Immigration Detention And Community Statistics Summary

At 31 December 2016, there were 1364 people in immigration detention facilities, including 1101 in immigration detention on the mainland and 263 in immigration detention on Christmas Island.

A further 566 people were living in the community after being approved for a residence determination and 25,810 were living in the community after grant of a Bridging Visa E.

At 31 January 2017, there were 1351 people in immigration detention facilities, including 1082 in immigration detention on the mainland and 269 in immigration detention on Christmas Island.

A further 568 people were living in the community after being approved for a residence determination and 25,252 were living in the community after grant of a Bridging Visa E.

​The ECDC Communicable Disease Threats Report (CDTR) is a weekly bulletin for epidemiologists and health professionals on active public health threats. This issue covers the period 12-18 March 2017 and includes updates on cholera, measles and Legionnaires disease.

Approximately 12 million people lived in protracted refugee situations* around the world at the end of 2015, comprising nearly two-thirds of the global refugee population. A protracted refugee situation exists when 25,000 or more refugees originating from the same country have sought refuge in another country for at least five consecutive years.

*These numbers include people in a refugee-like situation

This document provides an overview of open-source-reported new laws or regulations affecting NGOs, and a summary of reported administrative decisions that affected their ability to operate. Links to the relevant Aid in Danger Monthly News Brief (in brackets in each sentence) provide further information.

At 31 March 2017, there were 1,328 people in immigration detention facilities, including 1,048 in immigration detention on the mainland and 280 in immigration detention on Christmas Island.

A further 544 people were living in the community after being approved for a residence determination and 24,063 were living in the community after grant of a Bridging Visa E.

WHY A REGIONAL FOCUS MODEL?

A key challenge faced by humanitarian agencies is how to ensure that limited available resources are allocated where they are most needed and are efficiently delivered in a principled manner. Decisions to allocate resources must strike a balance between meeting the immediate needs of crisis affected communities and supporting efforts to strengthen resilience and response preparedness to future emergencies.

To support humanitarian partners address some of these challenges, the OCHA Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (ROAP) produces the Regional Focus Model (RFM) similar to previous analyses in 2015 and 2016, the model is based on INFORM

(http://www.inform-index.org/), a global risk index that identifies and analyze where crises requiring international assistance may occur. It can be used to support decisions about disaster risk reduction, emergency preparedness and response.

The model identifies hazard-prone countries that combine high vulnerability to hazards and low capacity to respond and are therefore more likely to accept or request support from the international community. The model also includes a "Humanitarian" component reflecting issues more directly related to OCHA's coordination work. It is designed to be a practical tool to inform and guide disaster managers. The tool is also used by OCHA to guide its regional strategic framework and annual work plan.

In 2017, the RFM covers analysis of 38 countries in the Asia-Pacific region under ROAP in Bangkok, Thailand and Office of the Pacific in Suva, Fiji.

Current major event

Implementation of Electronic EWARN Platform in EMRO

In collaboration with ITT unit of the Regional Office, the IHM unit of the Department of WHO Health Emergen- cies Programme in EMRO is developing a regional electronic platform for EWARN (Early warning Alert and Re- sponse Network) for humanitarian crisis affected settings.

Editorial note

Vulnerable populations who have survived the initial disaster should never have to face the prospect of dying from subsequent preventable disease outbreaks. EWARN is an early warning syndromic and event based surveillance system for humanitarian crisis settings to ensure timely detection and response to disease outbreaks. Populations affected by humanitarian crisis, whether internally displaced, refugees, or local host populations, often find themselves at increased risk of infectious hazards and disease outbreaks. This is often due to undue exposure to disease transmitting vectors; compromised water quality and sanitary conditions that increase the risk of water borne diseases; and poor overcrowded shelters that increase the risk of respiratory spread of pathogens.

EWARN has been implemented by WHO in collaboration with the Ministries of Health and a network of NGOs providing health care services to affected populations through fixed and temporary health facilities. However recent experiences in different contexts in several countries in humanitarian crisis in the region have shown that unless these systems are implemented in a timely manner, and optimized through appropriate real time innovative electronic solutions, their true value may not be realized in certain contexts. Unique challenges include insecurity barriers that render manual data transmission EWARN systems ineffective, as well as delays and incomplete reporting often associated with manual reporting.

Use of innovative real time electronic EWARN solutions in recent and ongoing humanitarian crisis in countries in the region such as Yemen, Iraq and Libya has demonstrated the value of these solutions in surmounting insecurity barriers to enable monitoring of disease occurrence among vulnerable displaced and host populations in hard to reach areas, cut off from direct access by insecurity and battle front lines. These tools have also bridged epidemiological analysis and reports preparation skills gaps that are often encountered in such setting by enabling automated data summarization and generation of epidemiological reports for stakeholders.

Despite its value, deployment of technology in EWARN systems has proved tenuous at best. In the recent past challenges encountered have included difficulties in finding expert developers in a timely manner, delays in contractual arrangements with the experts because of pending donor appeals, and extended periods of time we can ill afford spent on addressing server and hosting issues.

The proposed regional electronic EWARN platform addresses these challenges by ensuring: i) a simple and user friendly electronic EWARN solution that can be easily customized and deployed in a new country setting; ii) back up hosting at Regional office for rapid and timely deployment while local hosting in the country is being addressed; iii) maintenance and customization of the electronic applications by readily accessible WHO staff for timely implementation and reliability of the electronic EWARN systems.